5 Things: Bills 43 Jets 23

1. Turnovers: (Jets 6 Bills 0)

This is the most predicative stat in football when it comes to wins and losses. It's not QB rating, it isn't yards, and it isn't sacks. It's turnovers. Both Jets quarterbacks had bad games, though Vick was able to move the ball in the first half with his legs. (more on that later) Geno Smith threw interceptions on three consecutive possessions in the first quarter. About as bad a game as I've ever seen from a NFL quarterback. Vick was picked off and fumbled twice. Even still, with a 4 - 0 turnover edge in the first half, the Bills only led by 7 at the half. (24-17) Why?

2. Three and outs.

The Bills simply couldn't convert on third downs today. ( I believe they finished 2 for 12) The reasons for this extend to the fabulous Jets front seven (as good as it gets in the NFL. Amazing) and the poor showing by the interior of the Bills offensive line. Their running game was non-existent, which meant their play action was also non-existent. And their were times when it looked llike Orton simply held the ball too long in the pocket. When you have a six to nothing turnover edge, and when you start six times in the opponents territory, 43 points isn't enough. Have to do better in this regard going forward.

3. The offensive line

I've been hammering the O-line for the past few weeks because their guard play has been abysmal. As in, all world awful. However, Urbik started today in place of of the rookie Henderson, who was little more than a pylon in Minesota, and played okay. The problem today was Eric Wood, their normally solid center. Understand, the Jets' Wilkerson (defensive rookie of the year last year) is a force, but Wood got blown off the ball consistently, which meant their running backs had nowhere to go. If your center gets beaten that badly, the play is over. Period. That's the worst game I've ever seen from Wood. I expect him to be better going forward.

As an aside, football is interesting to casual fans because it's easy enough to follow the ball on a given play. However, if you want to see what's happening from a more analytic perspective, watch the line play. That is, do not watch the quarterback. Take your eyes off the ball and watch the line. On television, you can't see downfield anyway. So watch the lines. This is where the game is won and lost. It always takes me longer to watch a Bills game because so often I'll rewind a play if i missed what happened on the line. I should add that Glenn has been very solid at left tacle, and the other rookie (also Henderson) has been steady on the right side. The problem is in the middle, which is why they can't run the ball.

4. Defense

This game belonged to the defense. The defensive line goes eight deep. Four of those guys are pro-bowlers. At the end of the first half Vick got the Jets into good position by using his legs. In the second half, I kept an eye on the Bills D-line to see how well they stayed in their lanes. (When you have an exceptional running QB like Vick, you can't cheat, take faster angles to get to the quarterback, because if you miss, he can get around you for a big gain. This is much harder than it looks, since every defensive lineman is trained to get to the QB) Only ONE play in the second half did the Bills lose contain (Jerry Hughes) and picked up four sacks. They were disciplined. And they were dominant.

But as great as they were, what has me really excited is the linebacking play of Preston Brown, the rookie from Lousiville. 'For SO many years the Bills struggled with their linebacking play. But with Bradham and Brown and Alonso coming back next year, they have a terrific group of LB's for the first time since 2000. I'm convinced that it's the improved play of the linebackers that has them in playoff position going into week nine. Well, that and this guy...

5. Sammy Watkins 

So much was written about the Bills giving an extra first round draft pick for this guy. It is an EXTREMELY high price to pay to move up five spots in the draft. I'm telling you, it was worth it. Yeah, yeah, sticking his arm in the air and slowing down and getting caught was a good teaching moment (sorry, it wasn't showboating, it was celebrating) but 3 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown later, he was the difference. Forget he's a rookie, he's a star right now. His route running and hands are far beyond his years. This guy is going to be great.

I should mention Kyle Orton, who threw four touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over. He's not perfect -- he still holds the ball too long in the pocket sometimes and he isn't mobile at all -- but he has guts. In the first half, on a third and seven he took a shot down the field. It ended up being a Bills three and out, but he's not afraid to throw it down the field. That same willingness led to the "should have been Watkins TD throw."

The Bills look dangerous to me, even without their top two running backs. There's much to fix, but they have a really good defense, a star receiver, a QB who can make the throws and a strong kicking game. Right now, they look like a playoff team.

5 Things: Bills 17 Minnesota 16

This is probably the biggest win for the Buffalo Bills franchise in years. That they were expected to win this game doesn't matter, the way they won is what counts: a last second TD pass to Sammy Watkins in a drive that included completing a fourth and twenty. I watched most of the fourth quarter with the sound off. (It's easier to see what's happening without the noise. Not exactly like watching coaches' tapes, but it's better) Okay, let's go to five things.

1. Turnovers are the most predicative stat in football. The Bills turned it over four times (the Vikings had two), two of them in the red zone. That the Bills were able to overcome those two turnovers speaks to the quality of their competition. (Look what happened against New England) If they don't clean that up, this season will be over in short order. They have to do a better job taking care of the football.

2. The Bills lost CJ Spiller (broken collarbone) and Fred Jackson (MRI coming) which meant a lot of time for Anthony Dixon. The issue isn't Spiller, who aside from that 51 yard run today before he got hurt, hasn't been effective this year. Some of that blame has to go to the coaching staff, which hasn't been terribly creative in getting him the ball, but that's not where the problem lies. (More on this in point 3) Fred Jackson is the more valuable player, the one who will be hard to replace. He's their leading receiver out of the backfield, and terrific at picking up blitzes on third down. Mr. Steady always picks up positive yardage, and knows how to run between two terrible guards. They do have Bryce Brown, who they picked up for a fourth round pick from the Eagles at the draft and who ran well in pre-season. Worried about losing Jackson, but that isn't the biggest concern going forward. No. 3 is.

3. The Bills probably have the worst set of guards in the league. Cyril Richardson was responsible for 3 sacks today (maybe even 4) and Erik Pears on the other side is just as bad. Richardson replaced Kraig Urbik, who shouldn't be playing in the NFL. Glenn is fine at left tackle, and Wood is a very good center, but playing with those two guards is like playing short-handed on every play. They're awful. To my earlier point about Spiller, he isn't a natural, between the tackles runner. He needs bigger holes than a huge back like Dixon or a slitherer like Jackson. Those holes, the push, hasn't been there this year. Just watch the Cowboys. Look at the holes Murray gets from that great offensive line. (Use your PVR and freeze it on replay. What do you think Spiller would do with holes like that?) I don't know how they fix this during the season, but it's tough to get the ball down the field to Watkins or run between the tackles when your two guards are getting blown out on every other play. The worrying part is that other teams will start blitzing the A-gap (the spot between the center and the guards) like Minnesota did in the second half. Especially without a great blocking back like Jackson.

4. Sammy Watkins. Two first round picks for one player is a lot, but wow, he looks like he might be worth it. He gets open consistently. Has great hands. Runs excellent routes. And doesn't seem at all wowed by either the moment or himself. If he stays healthy, the Bills have a generational talent. Spectacular game today, and when they needed him the most, there was no way they were going to anyone else. A rookie, but seven games in, already the most dynamic player on that offense and the one the other teams (sans Revis island) have to stop.

5. I understand that Bills fans are testy. I get it. I've been a fan for thirty years, and the last fifteen have been brutal. But we have to stop ripping the team when they win. It's hard to win in the NFL. When the Bills won against Detroit a coupe weeks ago, I heard numerous fans suggesting it was the Lions' kicker, who missed three field goals, and not the great play of the Bills' defense, that won them the game. Hey, kicking is an important part of the game. And today it's been fans suggesting that a close win like this over a bad opponent at home means they're not a playoff team. Um, not winning enough makes you a non-playoff team. They won. Relax. Enjoy it. Next week marks the halfway point of the season and the Bills are still in it. My point, stop ripping the team when they win. They've done it little enough over the past fifteen years that you should be enjoying the result.

5 Things: Patriots 37 Bills 22

1. There was a big question early in the season after the Patriots started 0 - 2 if this was the year Tom Brady was finally finished, that his decline as one of the greatest to ever play was eminent. Yeah, about that. Facing a very good Bills defense in the second half, and without top rusher Stephen Ridley and nothing but a bunch of question marks for receivers, Brady put up 24 points, including a couple of pinpoint throws down the field. Oh, and did I mention that he lost one of his starting offensive linemen (Dan Connolly) from a line already filled with question marks? Brady is still great. Which means the Patriots will probably win the division. Again.

2. I became a Bills fan in 1988, when the Dallas Cowboys fired legendary coach Tom Landry. I've been one ever since. These 14 years and counting of the Bills not even making the post-season, after such startling success in the nineties, has been failure on something approaching spectacular levels. In a league like the NFL, 14 years without making the playoffs is like 40 in Major League baseball. It's just mind boggling. So today's game, with a chance to grab the division lead, and the gap in talent much closer than it's been in years, the Bills laid an absolute egg in the second half. Brady is now 23 - 2 all-time against the Bills. I doubt that's going to change very soon.

3. It isn't that the Bills do not have talent. They do. The problem is that the places that lack talent means they employ players who are SO below replacement level they bring down the team. Duke Williams, for example, is a tremendous special teams player. But he's a terrible safety. His two penalties today were of the "what the hell was that" variety.

On the offensive line, Erik Pears has been awful at guard for them. He was today, as well. Most casual fans do not understand guard play, the offensive linemen who line up on each side of the center. Here's a quick tip to help you understand if you're getting good guard play. Your ability to rush the ball, and your ability to protect the quarterback up the middle. Well, the Bills haven't been able to garner a consistent rushing attack all year, and that's with a duo (trio?) of talented backs. Eric Wood is a solid center. Pears gets thrown around and beaten so often, plays are wrecked before they even begin.

In the back end, McKelvin should not be playing. As a nickel back in certain situations? Maybe. But he got exposed today, as did Graham back at safety. The one touchdown was a direct result of his being out of position.

When one player on a unit is horrific, the talent level around them almost doesn't matter. All about the weakest chain.

4. Lack of offensive creativity. At some point, they have to figure out how to get CJ Spiller going. The line isn't good enough to open holes for him (like Dallas does for DeMarco Murray) but he's too good a playmaker not to get him involved. Put him in a Percy Harvin role. Get him the ball in space. Otherwise, you'll be starting drives 2 and 11 or 2 and 13 like they did today.

5. Speaking of the offensive line, watching Dallas beat Seattle today should be a lesson. The Cowboys have three top picks on their offensive line. Zach Martin, their 16th overall pick this year, played four years at Notre Dame. (I might have missed two of them.) He's a guard, the least glamorous position in football, and he's changed everything for them. They run the ball with authority, and they protect the quarterback. The Bills haven't had consistent guard play since they let Andy Levitre go to the Titans a few years ago. Now that they have a new owner, maybe they need to start paying more for a position that is vital to winning but gets no publicity. It's great to have Sammy Watkins on the outside. But if you can't run the ball, and your quarterback doesn't have time to throw it down the field, then it doesn't matter how good your skill guys are.

The Love of Sports!

Hey everyone,

I just wanted to let you know that I've started a new blog, Toronto Pro Sports, for all of you sports fans out there. As much as I love to write about faith and life and culture, there remains the little boy in me who remembers growing up and watching his heroes. I remember going to the games with my dad. Shooting hoops until I couldn't see the net. Running wind sprints in full pads on a cool autumn afternoon.

As a kid, sports were not only my escape, but in many ways they taught me about who I was and what I could be. The temporal boundaries were, and remain, a welcome relief from a life of gray and nuance. Of things I didn't understand. Now, as then, much of my counseling and teaching filters through my exposure to sports, and what I learned in the communities we created both as kids and adults. Mostly, however, the purpose of the blog is to simply enjoy the recreation and relaxing nature of the games. (With good debate, of course!)

I'd love for you to stop by, the peanut gallery is open...

-Steve