Predictions for the 2014-15 Toronto Raptors

It's that time of year and Toronto's best sports franchise is back. I was trying to figure out how to frame this year's predictions, so I decided I'd steal these questions from my favourite Raptors' website.

It feels strange this year, because the NBA is generally a highly predicative league. That is, with only five players on the floor, assuming teams stay healthy, there isn't a lot of unexpected movement. That's what made the raptors season last year so surprising after the Gay trade, because they did move.

However, the change in pieces explained that. So did the break through seasons for Lowry and Derozan. And so now we're at a very strange place. The Raptors are expected to win the division. They are expected to get to the playoffs, expected to get to the second round of the playoffs. And unlike the Blue Jays, who made a trade and before seeing the results on the field were predicting a World Series appearance, we know this Raptors team will be good. How good, we're not sure. But they play an entertaining, unselfish style, they go two deep at every position, and will grind other teams into the ground with their relentlessness. As a fan, what more can you ask for. (Except for signing Kevin Durant next season. Drake, you there?)

1. What will the Raptors record be?

Almost guaranteed to be in the 44 to 52 range. A lot of prognosticators seem particularly bullish on the Raptors getting to 50 wins. I'm not. The Eastern conference has become more balanced with LeBron's shift to Cleveland and the return of Rose to Chicago, though it clearly remains the weaker conference. Toronto started 6 - 12 before the trade last year, but everything after that went as smoothly as one could imagine. No injuries, other than Johnson's wonky ankles. They had great team chemistry, and everyone accepted their roles. 

Some have suggested that Lowry's breakout was due to a contract year. Or that we're bound to see a dip in play. Nothing we've learned about Lowry has suggested that he will be anything less than he was last year. And Derozan has looked even better in the pre-season, his confidence skyrocketing after making the US World championship squad. 

So where does that leave us? I'm predicting another 48 win season, which in an improved conference with more parity, is actually an upgrade. They'll win the division title and lose in the second round to the Bulls. 

2. Do Lowry or DeRozan make the All-Star team?

Yes. It's a much harder path for Lowry, but if he puts up the numbers in the first half of the season that he had last year, he'll make it. And Derozan is -- depending on Dwayne Wade's health -- the best or second best shooting guard in the East. 

Their record will come into play here, bu their schedule favours a fast start. If they're leading the division with a decent record, say eight or nine games above .500, they'll get two in the game. Thinking back to last year, I still get frustrated thinking about Lowry's exclusion. Here's hoping the fans stop being idiots and voting in a player like Irving. The next time Irving plays defense will be the first time. He's a decent offensive player but the most overrated player in the Eastern Conference, and it's not close. Raptor fans, make sure you vote.

 

3. Take a guess at the numbers for Ross and Valanciunas

For both players, the steps they need to make won't be found in their individual numbers. (Not the basic stats anyway, in the advanced stats those steps ARE measured. For the purposes of this site, I try to keep the advanced numbers to a minimum, though I'll reference them occasionally.) For JV, his biggest contribution will be on the defensive end. He needs to better on his rotations, he seemed to arrive a step too slow last year. He also needs to play with an edge. Centers in basketball are like centers in football, they need to play smart and mean. He's packed on some muscle and its his third season. Bigs always take longer to develop. I fully expect him to be better this year. And despite that lumbering shot fake, if he develops anything going to his left, he can be a scoring machine down low. I'm saying 15PPG and 10RPG, but watch closely his work on the defensive end.

As for Ross, he's got a great role model in Derozan. I just don't think he has DD's fire. He can shoot it though, and he's got unbelievable athletic ability. Let's see, agains, like JV, what his perimeter defense looks like this year. He can't coast and he can't stop the ball on offense. He needs to hunt his shots and move the ball. I'd like to see 3 assists per game. If he gets to that, you'll know he's moving in the right direction. I'll go with 13 PPG, 2 RPG and 2APG. Again though, it's going to be more nuanced as to marking his improvement this year.

4. What change would you like to see on offense?

Not much. They need to move the ball like they did last year. We'll see how they integrate Lou Williams and James Johnson (who sometimes thinks he's a scoring point guard) and how that affects the chemistry and flow. They also need to get Valunciunas more involved. Last year he saw the ball early and they never went back to him. The young center can score, keep him involved. 

5. What change would you like to see on defense?

Where to begin. Casey is an excellent defensive coach, and he has some new toys this year, particularly James Johnson, who can guard positions 1 - 4. And when Amir Johnson is on the floor, one of the best pick and roll big men defenders in the NBA,  the Raptors are capable of playing elite defense.

Let's see how JV adjusts, and whether Derozan can play at least average defense. Lowry is an excellent defender, and Ross has shown flashes. Their defense will decide what happens this year, because the team can score.

Final thoughts

The Raptors have a chance to be very good. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and the deepest in the Association. If any of their young core takes a significant step forward they'll challenge for one of the top two seeds in the conference. Their schedule, however, somewhat demands they get out to an early start. Which means Casey has to figure out very quickly how his new pieces fit into his rotations. It's a concern, but not a major one. The kids have another year to grow, and the vetrans like Lowry and Derozan won't let this thing get off the rails. In other words, Raptors' fans can prepare for a fun season of solid and enjoyable basketball, and if the chips fall right, they just might find their team in the Conference Finals. 

5 Things: Raptors vs. Celtics (Pre-season)

I started doing "5 Things" last year after Raptor games, and this year we're going to try and make it a regular feature, time willing. It's great to have basketball back, even if it's only pre-season.

After winning 48 games last year and pushing Brooklyn to seven games in the opening round, the Raps are looking to grow from last season's unexpected success. They re-signed Lowry, Patterson and Vasquez, and are hoping their young players like Ross and JV continue to improve.

Now, this is the pre-season, so you always want to be careful with your evaluation. Coaches aren't trying to win so much as trying to find the right combinations, allow the new players (like Lou Williams and James Johnson) get comfortable. So any analysis needs to keep that in mind. With that all said, here are my Five Things from tonight's game.

1) Demar is ready

Demar Derozan was a first time all-star last year. He made Team USA over the summer, as a surprise pick. He's clearly ready for the regular season. He looked decisive and confident tonight, and even showed flashes on the defensive end. If DD becomes even an avergae defensive player (and his 3 stroke looked very good tonight) he'll take yet another step towards stardom. He's already an all-star. Tonight, the Raptors looked decidely different with him on the floor.

2) Second Unit still finding its way

They added Lou Williams, a scorer, and James Johnson, as good a lockdown 3-4 defender in the NBA for their second unit, but it may take a while for those guys to figure out how to play together. The second unit got ripped tonight. There were clear communication issues, and when Williams isn't scoring, and JJ believes he is a scorer, there are problems. They did carry the first unit's unselfishness with them, which is a good sign, but they were something of a mess on the defensive end.

3) Defensive issues

Coach Dwane Casey said before the game the offense was ahead of the defense. No kidding. Awful transition defense, slow rotations (particularly JV), and a general lack of intensity brought to mind their late season struggles on that end. This is a concern going forward. People have lauded a backup duo of Williams and Vasquez, but neither of those guys play defense, and if they aren't scoring, JJ cannot cover for them completely. They'll give away leads like they did tonight with regularity.

4) More Defensive Issues

I don't want to hammer on this, but the Raptors ability to play good team defense (They finished in the top ten in the NBA last year) is this season's most concerning, and most important, issue. Boston shot over 50% tonight. The Raptors don't seem to recognize individual players on the floor. Jumping out at Evan Turner on the 3 point line, for example, so he can make the extra pass to a better shooter. Or not identifying that Avery Bradley has a jump shot and not guarding him until he scored 20 points in the first half. Everything about their defense screams desperation. I won't hammer on the whistle in the pre-season, but the fact that the Raptors got 2 technicals in a freaking pre-season game should indicate some frustration towards that part of the game. I blame this on frustration and some guys consistently not being where they were supposed to be. Give someone an open shot in the NBA, they're going to make it.

5) Kyle Lowry

Only fitting that this post start and end with the Raptors two best players. Lowry makes such a huge difference because even in a pre-season game, he gives a shit. He's the only truly good defender among the Raptor guards, and when he's out there, this is a completely different team. there are concerns going forward, mostly on the defensive end, but so long as Derozan and Lowry stay healthy, they'll compete and win their fair share of games. And that's all you can ask from your favourite team.

-Steve

LeBron: The Story behind the Story (Part I)

The sun had not yet sunk to the horizon as I headed south down Highway 6. Every fifty kilometers or so I drove through another sleepy town, and with the windows down, listened to the summer hum of insects. This was the night LeBron made his decision. Alone on the highway, I tuned the radio to WGR out of Buffalo, listened to it cackle and then catch. I wasn't sure what to expect, but if I'd been betting, my money was that he would stay in Cleveland. I hoped not. Whether it was the Bulls or the Heat, it would give me something to look forward to in the upcoming season, seeing as how our star, Chris Bosh, had already twittered his way to Miami.

The land north of Guelph consisted mostly of farms, and in the last of the fading light I could see the dark shapes of horses and cows grazing along the rolling hills, the land's gentle syncopation a startling contrast from the hue and cry of Toronto. It was a welcome break. The ESPN announcers were still waiting for LeBron to make his appearance twenty minutes later as I approached Guelph. The station cackled with static and broke off just as LeBron started to make his announcement. I grimaced in frustration. I'm missing the moment! About three minutes later the station broke back just as LeBron said "I'll be taking my talents to South Beach." I pounded my steering wheel in jubilation, and hollered at nobody out the window. LeBron. Dwayne Wade. Chris Bosh. Now THAT would be a fun troika to watch. Maybe it would give the league something to celebrate aside than the Celtics and Lakers. What intrigued me even more than the decision, which in my mind had played out as a great drama, were two things. The first, of course, was what story were the sportswriters going to write. The second was what it meant for the general public. Many people didn't realize it, but both questions had implications for the culture, including the non-basketball/non-sports fan. LeBron was more than an athlete, he was a celebrity capable of rippling the culture. It was the ripples that interested me.

***

The Story Behind the Story

"I'm cheering for my story."

Ask most sports writers who they're cheering for when it comes to covering players and teams, and that's the response you'll get. As someone who has spent more time writing fiction than non-fiction, I can tell you that sports writing uses more narrative than any other part of the newspaper, and most of the best work has its roots in myth making. One need only look at baseball, the relationship between it and one of its prevalent themes of father and son. (Explored beautifully in Field of Dreams) More than mere accounts of games played between adults, sportswriting offers a peek into a different world, a world that is often more fantasy than reality, a world created to offer us help and hope in our everyday lives. (And yes, my cynical friends, to get our money) When we understand it this way, we realize that basketball is not merely a game, which is why LeBron's decision wasn't – according to the sportswriters – a basketball decision. Although he spoke of playing (which means working) with his friends, Wade and Bosh, and winning championships, which is the ultimate goal for his type of employment, nobody believed him. Why would they? Reading a cross section of literally hundreds of reactions throughout North America from sports writers across the country, the unfailing tone of the articles was disappointment. Disappointment with how LeBron handled the situation, disappointment with his apparent ego, disappointment that he had chosen "the easy way", disappointment that a two time MVP switched teams to "create an all-star team". The only place where the disappointment made any real sense was for Cleveland fans, some of whom were seen soon after burning his jersey in effigy.

From a 'realism' standpoint, the response to LeBron's decision (and everything it included, like the hour long special to announce it) is ridiculous. That people would burn an athlete's jersey reveals just how well the sports writers have done their job the past hundred years in creating a mythological narrative to encase athletes. Their exploits are told and retold, as it was surely done in civilizations past, as a story around a fire. The myth story behind LeBron -- hometown kid from a poor home, perhaps the greatest of all time, leading his beleaguered, working class city to its first championship in nearly forty years -- was a powerful one. For seven years LeBron worked to bring that myth to its telling finale, but fell short. Instead of buying into his own myth however, LeBron changed the rules, and opted out of the narrative to play with his friends for a better shot at a championship.

"Not a leader." "Cowardly." "LeBron blew it!"

Those were the headlines the next day, and it seemed to me that most of the sports writers had made their decision. LeBron had gone from the hero to the villain, the greedy (though he took less money) and arrogant (his own show!) young superstar who preferred the rich, flashy night life of Miami to the good, hard working people of Cleveland. I understood their perspective. What choice did they have? They'd framed the story of the hometown hero for so long, spent so many years building a heroic narrative, there wasn't much else they could write, could they? It shocked me a bit how people accepted this verbatim, but sports have long since served as more than mere games in our culture. I remember the stories my dad used to tell me about the grace of Willie Mays and watching Mickey Mantle hit. Or how Roger Staubach would lead his Cowboys back from certain defeat. I remember how eagerly I read books and stories about my favourite athletes as a kid, how I'd get together with my friends and we'd all take turns being Ozzie Smith or Walter Payton or Larry Bird. In the shadow of these great narratives, of growing up and learning about life, the posters on my wall were about something bigger than the game or even my favourite player. They weren't true, necessarily, not in the strictest sense. But that didn't make them any less real or affecting, especially to a kid growing up in Welland, a small blue collar town just north of the American border.

So while I understand the "disappointment", most of it seems disingenuous to me. Sportswriters understand myth and story, and they do their jobs much the way anyone does their job. There's no mystique for them in the people they write about, although occasionally there is admiration. They're too close, for one thing. They see the humanity of the players, their selfishness and arrogance, their usual human foibles, on a regular basis. It's hard to hold someone up on a pedestal when you realize that they're a lot like you.

And yet, only a few mentioned, for example, that four years ago Kobe Bryant lost nearly all of his sponsors when he was accused of rape (later settling with his accuser) and lost in the first round of the playoffs to Phoenix. That narrative has long since changed again (aided mostly when Jerry West stole Pau Gasol and gave Bryant another stud to play with. Not that you'll hear anything about that, because Kobe "stayed" in L.A.) This season, the writers went with the "Kobe finds a way" narrative, including game seven when Bryant was nearly invisible for most of the fourth quarter.

While I still enjoy sports narrative and the occasional dabbling into myth (go John Feinstein) we need to realize that LeBron is not a villain. For an NBA superstar, he is remarkably well grounded and an unselfish player who puts his team first. Yes, he has an ego. So did Jordan. (As did Bird, Magic, Shaq, and Kobe) If Miami wins multiple championships, the LeBron narrative will change again, as it did for Bryant. As it always does. What it does however, is serve as a stark reminder to be careful in how we create our lives and build our own stories. Myth making is not merely for celebrities, but for us too. How we interpret the events of our culture are just as important as the events themselves. Does the LeBron decision truly impact our culture that much? Even for people who don't follow sports? I think it does, but I'll leave that for you to decide.

Stay tuned for Part II…

-Steve