Predictions for the 2014-15 Toronto Raptors

It's that time of year and Toronto's best sports franchise is back. I was trying to figure out how to frame this year's predictions, so I decided I'd steal these questions from my favourite Raptors' website.

It feels strange this year, because the NBA is generally a highly predicative league. That is, with only five players on the floor, assuming teams stay healthy, there isn't a lot of unexpected movement. That's what made the raptors season last year so surprising after the Gay trade, because they did move.

However, the change in pieces explained that. So did the break through seasons for Lowry and Derozan. And so now we're at a very strange place. The Raptors are expected to win the division. They are expected to get to the playoffs, expected to get to the second round of the playoffs. And unlike the Blue Jays, who made a trade and before seeing the results on the field were predicting a World Series appearance, we know this Raptors team will be good. How good, we're not sure. But they play an entertaining, unselfish style, they go two deep at every position, and will grind other teams into the ground with their relentlessness. As a fan, what more can you ask for. (Except for signing Kevin Durant next season. Drake, you there?)

1. What will the Raptors record be?

Almost guaranteed to be in the 44 to 52 range. A lot of prognosticators seem particularly bullish on the Raptors getting to 50 wins. I'm not. The Eastern conference has become more balanced with LeBron's shift to Cleveland and the return of Rose to Chicago, though it clearly remains the weaker conference. Toronto started 6 - 12 before the trade last year, but everything after that went as smoothly as one could imagine. No injuries, other than Johnson's wonky ankles. They had great team chemistry, and everyone accepted their roles. 

Some have suggested that Lowry's breakout was due to a contract year. Or that we're bound to see a dip in play. Nothing we've learned about Lowry has suggested that he will be anything less than he was last year. And Derozan has looked even better in the pre-season, his confidence skyrocketing after making the US World championship squad. 

So where does that leave us? I'm predicting another 48 win season, which in an improved conference with more parity, is actually an upgrade. They'll win the division title and lose in the second round to the Bulls. 

2. Do Lowry or DeRozan make the All-Star team?

Yes. It's a much harder path for Lowry, but if he puts up the numbers in the first half of the season that he had last year, he'll make it. And Derozan is -- depending on Dwayne Wade's health -- the best or second best shooting guard in the East. 

Their record will come into play here, bu their schedule favours a fast start. If they're leading the division with a decent record, say eight or nine games above .500, they'll get two in the game. Thinking back to last year, I still get frustrated thinking about Lowry's exclusion. Here's hoping the fans stop being idiots and voting in a player like Irving. The next time Irving plays defense will be the first time. He's a decent offensive player but the most overrated player in the Eastern Conference, and it's not close. Raptor fans, make sure you vote.

 

3. Take a guess at the numbers for Ross and Valanciunas

For both players, the steps they need to make won't be found in their individual numbers. (Not the basic stats anyway, in the advanced stats those steps ARE measured. For the purposes of this site, I try to keep the advanced numbers to a minimum, though I'll reference them occasionally.) For JV, his biggest contribution will be on the defensive end. He needs to better on his rotations, he seemed to arrive a step too slow last year. He also needs to play with an edge. Centers in basketball are like centers in football, they need to play smart and mean. He's packed on some muscle and its his third season. Bigs always take longer to develop. I fully expect him to be better this year. And despite that lumbering shot fake, if he develops anything going to his left, he can be a scoring machine down low. I'm saying 15PPG and 10RPG, but watch closely his work on the defensive end.

As for Ross, he's got a great role model in Derozan. I just don't think he has DD's fire. He can shoot it though, and he's got unbelievable athletic ability. Let's see, agains, like JV, what his perimeter defense looks like this year. He can't coast and he can't stop the ball on offense. He needs to hunt his shots and move the ball. I'd like to see 3 assists per game. If he gets to that, you'll know he's moving in the right direction. I'll go with 13 PPG, 2 RPG and 2APG. Again though, it's going to be more nuanced as to marking his improvement this year.

4. What change would you like to see on offense?

Not much. They need to move the ball like they did last year. We'll see how they integrate Lou Williams and James Johnson (who sometimes thinks he's a scoring point guard) and how that affects the chemistry and flow. They also need to get Valunciunas more involved. Last year he saw the ball early and they never went back to him. The young center can score, keep him involved. 

5. What change would you like to see on defense?

Where to begin. Casey is an excellent defensive coach, and he has some new toys this year, particularly James Johnson, who can guard positions 1 - 4. And when Amir Johnson is on the floor, one of the best pick and roll big men defenders in the NBA,  the Raptors are capable of playing elite defense.

Let's see how JV adjusts, and whether Derozan can play at least average defense. Lowry is an excellent defender, and Ross has shown flashes. Their defense will decide what happens this year, because the team can score.

Final thoughts

The Raptors have a chance to be very good. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and the deepest in the Association. If any of their young core takes a significant step forward they'll challenge for one of the top two seeds in the conference. Their schedule, however, somewhat demands they get out to an early start. Which means Casey has to figure out very quickly how his new pieces fit into his rotations. It's a concern, but not a major one. The kids have another year to grow, and the vetrans like Lowry and Derozan won't let this thing get off the rails. In other words, Raptors' fans can prepare for a fun season of solid and enjoyable basketball, and if the chips fall right, they just might find their team in the Conference Finals. 

5 Things: Raptors vs. Celtics (Pre-season)

I started doing "5 Things" last year after Raptor games, and this year we're going to try and make it a regular feature, time willing. It's great to have basketball back, even if it's only pre-season.

After winning 48 games last year and pushing Brooklyn to seven games in the opening round, the Raps are looking to grow from last season's unexpected success. They re-signed Lowry, Patterson and Vasquez, and are hoping their young players like Ross and JV continue to improve.

Now, this is the pre-season, so you always want to be careful with your evaluation. Coaches aren't trying to win so much as trying to find the right combinations, allow the new players (like Lou Williams and James Johnson) get comfortable. So any analysis needs to keep that in mind. With that all said, here are my Five Things from tonight's game.

1) Demar is ready

Demar Derozan was a first time all-star last year. He made Team USA over the summer, as a surprise pick. He's clearly ready for the regular season. He looked decisive and confident tonight, and even showed flashes on the defensive end. If DD becomes even an avergae defensive player (and his 3 stroke looked very good tonight) he'll take yet another step towards stardom. He's already an all-star. Tonight, the Raptors looked decidely different with him on the floor.

2) Second Unit still finding its way

They added Lou Williams, a scorer, and James Johnson, as good a lockdown 3-4 defender in the NBA for their second unit, but it may take a while for those guys to figure out how to play together. The second unit got ripped tonight. There were clear communication issues, and when Williams isn't scoring, and JJ believes he is a scorer, there are problems. They did carry the first unit's unselfishness with them, which is a good sign, but they were something of a mess on the defensive end.

3) Defensive issues

Coach Dwane Casey said before the game the offense was ahead of the defense. No kidding. Awful transition defense, slow rotations (particularly JV), and a general lack of intensity brought to mind their late season struggles on that end. This is a concern going forward. People have lauded a backup duo of Williams and Vasquez, but neither of those guys play defense, and if they aren't scoring, JJ cannot cover for them completely. They'll give away leads like they did tonight with regularity.

4) More Defensive Issues

I don't want to hammer on this, but the Raptors ability to play good team defense (They finished in the top ten in the NBA last year) is this season's most concerning, and most important, issue. Boston shot over 50% tonight. The Raptors don't seem to recognize individual players on the floor. Jumping out at Evan Turner on the 3 point line, for example, so he can make the extra pass to a better shooter. Or not identifying that Avery Bradley has a jump shot and not guarding him until he scored 20 points in the first half. Everything about their defense screams desperation. I won't hammer on the whistle in the pre-season, but the fact that the Raptors got 2 technicals in a freaking pre-season game should indicate some frustration towards that part of the game. I blame this on frustration and some guys consistently not being where they were supposed to be. Give someone an open shot in the NBA, they're going to make it.

5) Kyle Lowry

Only fitting that this post start and end with the Raptors two best players. Lowry makes such a huge difference because even in a pre-season game, he gives a shit. He's the only truly good defender among the Raptor guards, and when he's out there, this is a completely different team. there are concerns going forward, mostly on the defensive end, but so long as Derozan and Lowry stay healthy, they'll compete and win their fair share of games. And that's all you can ask from your favourite team.

-Steve

Raptors - Nets Game 4 preview

Finally finished re-watching the tape last night. Here are my post game thoughts on the Raptors Game 3 in Brooklyn. (and my pre-game thoughts for tonight)

1) A word about the officiating. You can't enjoy the NBA if you can't grasp that it's radically different than the college game and the women's game (which is played below the rim). And it isn't officiated the same way. The athletes are too freakish, and there is a foul on every play. Better to get into your mind that you're watching a street game with a dad roughly making sure it doesn't turn into a brawl. That said, that last minute of the game is some of the worst officiating I've ever seen. Three (maybe four, if you count the one Lowry fouled out on) game changing calls. Without those calls, the Raptors win that game. Plain and simple. Before that, except for a brutal call on JV in the first quarter, the officiating was even. The last minute is inexcusable though, and it cost the Raps the game.

2) Patterson was a beast. Forget the missed free throws, as important as they were, he was the reason for the comeback. Next time, double P, just make the freebies!

3) I loved how the Nets attacked JV. Valanciunas is the biggest mismatch on the floor, no one on the Nets can guard him, especially not the remnants of KG. He gets almost no respect from the officials. On one free throw, Blatche literally threw him to ground. No call. If he gets into foul trouble, the other matchups all favour the Nets.

4) Except for Derozan. He had that horrible first game, but what you're seeing is an all star climbing the next rung to a superstar. the only thing holding him back is his defense, but at least he played with energy on both ends, especially in the second half. I like him in the high pick and roll, where the aggressive Nets perimeter defense can give him space once he beats it. He handled Livingston fairly easily.

5) Johnson is playing a hell of a series for the Nets. Damn, he shouldn't have been an all star this year, but you can see why he's been selected seven times. For a wing, he's huge, crafty and can shoot. Raptors haven't been able to stop him, and they probably won't for the rest of the series. Keep running him off the three point line and bodying him, hope he misses. They don't have anyone who can guard him.

6) The Raptors need more from Ross. They're essentially playing a man short. Broken record, but he's their only other wing shooter. Patterson bailed them out last game, but Salmons and Fields are a massive drop.

7) The rotations on defense got better as the game wore on, but that has to start and last all 48 minutes. It's about want. We saw it at the end of the fourth quarter. Need to see it in the first half.

8) How bad is Lowry hurt? He drives this team, and he's too hurt to be effective, particularly on their perimeter defense, Raps are in trouble. What a bulldog.

9)  Turnovers are an issue, and if they can just get to 13 or 14 they'll be fine. Still too many, but didn't think it was the key issue on Friday.

10) Just love watching this team, the way they never quit, the way they work. Love love the mental toughness. They've been disrespected by the league continually, and I'm desperately hoping they can at least make this a long series. That will garner some respect. Oh yeah, Raptor fans are the best in the league. What a crazy awesome sight in Raptors' Square.

Prediction: You have to take the game on the road. It won't be handed to you. So long as Lowry is okay, I think the Raptors win tonight 95 - 88. (If the Raptors lose, the series is over. They won't let that happen.) #wethenorth

The Love of Sports!

Hey everyone,

I just wanted to let you know that I've started a new blog, Toronto Pro Sports, for all of you sports fans out there. As much as I love to write about faith and life and culture, there remains the little boy in me who remembers growing up and watching his heroes. I remember going to the games with my dad. Shooting hoops until I couldn't see the net. Running wind sprints in full pads on a cool autumn afternoon.

As a kid, sports were not only my escape, but in many ways they taught me about who I was and what I could be. The temporal boundaries were, and remain, a welcome relief from a life of gray and nuance. Of things I didn't understand. Now, as then, much of my counseling and teaching filters through my exposure to sports, and what I learned in the communities we created both as kids and adults. Mostly, however, the purpose of the blog is to simply enjoy the recreation and relaxing nature of the games. (With good debate, of course!)

I'd love for you to stop by, the peanut gallery is open...

-Steve